It is confirmed that the Russian Ambassador has died.

Speculation will be rife – and here is my take on it.

Who gains?

What else is going on in the world that is effected by this?

There are a number of groups who stand to gain.  All of which lead back, unfortunately, to the US the EU.  If in fact this was related to the rebel groups in Syria, we know well that the Western governments are not only supporting them rhetorically, but also with arms, and troops illegally on the ground (US troops were found in Aleppo and the White Helmets are funded by western governments and witness reports say that they have joined in the fighting).

We also have the liberal left in the US trying to change the electoral vote.  An incident like this may well achieve that change.  With Hillary Clinton out of the picture, it may well result in an extension of Obama’s term until new elections.   All though one has to wonder whether Obama would ever let go of power if he is prepared to go to these lengths to hold onto it.  This could also be a result if war is declared as it would justify a state of emergency which would put the presidential transfer on hold.

The EU /NATO are a definite contender to benefit as well.  Not only does it help to galvanise people in fear, but it justifies even more spending on protection against the big Russian threat.  This may also have an impact on Brexit.

Whilst Turkey may take the heat for this, it seems unlikely that they personally have anything to gain from this and the risk of war with Russia.

What is clear is that was planned, as you will see in the video below, the gun man came from behind, and had a well prepared speech.  We can understand from this that it was time in the making and a particular result is intended.

All we will ever be able to do is speculate and history will write the story of the victors.  I will do a statement analysis if I see any interesting comments on the situation.

For now though, keep safe people.  Putin has shown enormous restraint and lack of desire for war, and we hope that this will continue for now.

UPDATE:  US statement is particularly interesting for analysis – ‘We condemn this act of violence, whatever its source.  Our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family’  

Points to notice – the use of the word ‘we’ is often a sign of guilt needing to be shared, the word ‘this’ indicates close proximity to the event, and the ‘whatever its source’ is pointing to knowledge of the source.  It is also notable that the source is pointed to first indicating what is more important to the US state department and the Ambassador is not addressed directly.

I believe that the US state department had advanced knowledge of this assassination.

In contrast: Boris Johnson writes – Shocked to hear of despicable murder of ‘s Ambassador to . My thoughts are with his family. I condemn this cowardly attack.

 

UPDATE:  it is believed that it was a Turkish police officer – a paid assassin.  Certainly his handling of the gun demonstrates training.

UPDATE:  Condemntations are coming in – US statement was interesting, will track it down and analyse it – stay with this post for up dates.